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What does the "Chance of booking" indicator mean?
What does the "Chance of booking" indicator mean?

Focus your efforts on the guests that will most likely book.

Pierre-Camille Hamana avatar
Written by Pierre-Camille Hamana
Updated over a week ago

The chance of booking indicator is a convenient indicator, as part of guests insights, to identify the guests that are most likely to book your place so that you can focus your efforts on them.

The problem

The average conversion rate for an Airbnb host is near 65%. This means one in three inquiries will not convert. This actually represents a sizable number, that can clog resources as you scale. 

We do believe every guest should be treated with the same level of care, professionalism and service, but in an environment with limited resources, it simply makes sense to prioritize guests that are more likely to reward your service.

The indicator

In its current implementation, the Chances of booking indicator is an indicator of friction, experience and engagement. Here are some of the factors that are taken into consideration. 

The indicator is dynamic and is only valid at one point in time. It will be updated on the face of changing circumstances.


The more hurdles a guest has to go through to perform a booking, the less likely they are to book the place. 

Some guests are new to Airbnb, and because they have not completed their profile details, are less likely to book a place than more experienced users. Here are some factors that are taken into consideration:

  • Profile picture: guests are required to post a profile picture to complete the booking, and to contact the host in the first place.

  • Email verified: will the guest receive Airbnb emails when you send a reply?

  • Phone number verified: will the guest receive SMS notifications?

  • ID Verified, as this step is often required by hosts, or encouraged to give access to Instant Book.

  • Payment method on file: we can determine if a guest has registered with Airbnb a payment method. Naturally, a guest with a payment method on file is more likely to book a stay than a guest who has not.


Guests with more experience on Airbnb know more about the process, and have a higher chance of booking a place. However, they are also more likely to contact several hosts.

  • Reviews: the more reviews a guest has received, the easier it is for them to book a place (for example with Instant Book).


A user that has contacted you recently is focused at that time to look for, and book, an Airbnb. A user that is also writing a longer message is more likely to be committed to your property, and will also give you more information in order to accept (or decline) their request quickly. That is why we also take into consideration:

  • Time since the last message

  • Length of the last message

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